Shenzhen property market turns： just need a family card at the replacement intersection, and an intermediary has returned to his hometown.

　　From Pingshan District in Shenzhen to Luohu District, from 70 square meters to 100 square meters of school district — — Xiao Zhu, who has been in Shenzhen for more than ten years, started the latest housing replacement plan at the end of last year because of his children’s school and housing needs.

　　For many people who come to Shenzhen, the funds are limited and they have the desire to settle down. Shenzhen Longgang, Pingshan and Yantian, which have lower total housing prices, have become the first choice for just getting on the bus. Buying a house for the first time from the urban fringe area, slowly moving, and gradually replacing it to the central area with mature facilities such as school district, commerce, transportation, etc., has almost become a more rational home buying logic for the Shenzhen family.

　　Since July 15th, 2020, the new policy of real estate regulation, Shenzhen property market has ushered in a wave of intensive policy regulation. Immediately after that, the new rules were changed, the source of down payment was strictly investigated, business loans illegally entered the market, and the "2.8" New Deal in 2021, etc., a series of regulation and control made the transactions of new and second-hand houses in Shenzhen continue to be under pressure, which also extinguished a virtual fire for the "crazy" property market in Shenzhen under the epidemic.

　　According to the data released by Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, in May, the number of online signing of second-hand houses in Shenzhen totaled 3,781 sets (including self-service online signing), a continuous decrease of 14% from the previous month, while the number of online signing of 11,028 sets of second-hand houses in May last year dropped significantly by 65.7%. In the latest week (June 7 ~13), 700 sets of barriers were broken, and the sideways situation of the property market has not been reversed.

　　In the case that the transaction continued sideways or even fell slightly, the quotation of Shenzhen owners remained firm.

　　According to the data monitoring of Leyoujia Store, as of May 31, the listing price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen continued to remain stable, and only a few housing prices were lowered.

　　At present, many Shenzhen owners who are on the road of replacement have a similar struggle with Xiao Zhu whether to choose to sell at a discount. On the one hand, at this time, the "old house" was sold at a discount, so as to quickly return the money and replace it to improve the house; But on the other hand, we firmly believe that the demand has not disappeared, and all parties involved in the market are convinced that if they hold it for a longer time, the return will be more abundant, "we can wait for a while."

　　From Pingshan to Luohu, initially finalized.

　　Similar to many replacement families, Xiao Zhu mainly considers that there are few key schools in Pingshan District where he lives now, and his children are going to primary school soon, and the educational resources in Luohu are relatively high-quality; On the other hand, the 70-square-meter house space is not abundant, the light is not too bright, and the overall living experience is getting worse and worse.

　　As early as the end of last year, Xiao Zhu and his family made up their minds to sell Pingshan’s house and replace it with Luohu.

　　At that time, after the "July 15" New Deal in 2020, the number of new customers and second-hand belts in Shenzhen’s property market continued to decline, and a large number of buyers entered a wait-and-see period.

　　This situation will continue until mid-October 2020. I thought that the transaction would decline and the listing price of second-hand houses would go down, but at that time, Xiao Zhu inquired with the real estate agent and found that the listing price of second-hand houses was still on the upward channel. The average price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen before and after the National Day last year had risen from 79,100 yuan/square meter after the "July 15" New Deal to 81,600 yuan/square meter.

　　On the one hand, the old house is for sale, on the other hand, the new house is for purchase. Comparatively speaking, Xiao Zhu has made an abacus in the face of the rising second-hand house price, and the replacement as soon as possible has become the consistent goal of the small family.

　　After several core elements such as key degree, more than 90 square meters, and strong surrounding life atmosphere were determined, Xiao Zhu initially locked in more than 40 suites. In the next two or three months, every Saturday and Sunday, whenever there is leisure time, Xiao Zhu will go to Luohu to see the house. During the day, I will spare time to look at the house, and at night, I will take time to check the real estate information. In a few days, I will chat with the intermediary WeChat about the recent market situation, heat and price, for fear that the information I have is lagging behind or one-sided.

　　Due to the tight budget, he is pragmatic and cautious, and upholds the principle of buying right and not buying expensive, and promotes the replacement housing plan in an orderly manner. Finally, Xiao Zhu took a fancy to a three-bedroom apartment of about 100 square meters near Luohu Port.

　　Under Xiao Zhu’s hard work, the seller promised to be responsible for the handling of house taxes and fees, and to roughly renovate the walls and toilets before moving in. Back and forth, the total price of this 100-square-meter school district in Luohu District is 9 million yuan.

　　The housing is satisfactory and the price is in line with the budget. Xiao Zhu and his family will finalize this housing two days later. At that time, it was close to New Year’s Day in 2021, and the stone hanging from Xiao Zhu’s heart was about to land.

　　Policies affect the market, and variables arise.

　　In the process of looking at the house and stepping on the plate, Xiao Zhu is also actively promoting another thing: listing and selling Pingshan’s self-occupied housing.

　　Compared with a set of second-hand houses in Futian District and Nanshan District of Shenzhen, the unit price exceeds 100,000 yuan, and the total price is 10 million yuan. The housing price in Pingshan District is much more friendly. Similar to Pingshan, Kengzi and other mature supporting lots in Pingshan District, the unit price per square meter is about 40,000 yuan.

　　Shortly after leaving for Luohu to see the house, Xiao Zhu put this self-occupied house up for sale. At first, several buyers will ask. Most of these buyers are the first suite for self-occupation and their own funds are limited. After that, few people paid attention to it for more than a month, but Xiao Zhu and his family insisted that they would not reduce the price.

　　One of the most important reasons is that people around us generally believe that the construction of subway lines 14 and 16 passing through Pingshan District is speeding up, and Yunba Line 1 of urban rail transit will be put into trial operation by the end of 2021. The improvement of traffic in the area is bound to drive the price of housing prices up. At the same time, the expectation of the upward trend of Shenzhen property market also gave them strong holding power and patience.

　　On the one hand, Xiao Zhu insisted, while on the other hand, based on the planning considerations of Shenzhen, Pingshan was always the last choice. Under the stalemate between the two sides, the road to selling Xiao Zhu’s old house was bumpy for the first time.

　　At the end of November, 2020, China Resources City Runfu, the online red disk in Nanshan District, made a "new move", and events such as crowdfunding and real estate speculation pushed the Shenzhen property market to the forefront, attracting attention from the outside world. However, for Shenzhen people who hold real estate such as Xiao Zhu, it is a shot in the arm: this at least once again confirms the ability of maintaining and increasing the value of Shenzhen real estate. Therefore, the decline in housing prices in areas outside Shenzhen, such as Pingshan, is a high probability that it will not happen.

　　But the plan has never changed quickly. On February 8, 2021, Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau took the lead in China to establish a reference mechanism for the transaction price of second-hand houses, and released the reference prices of 3,595 communities (hereinafter referred to as "28 policy").

　　As soon as the policy was introduced, Xiao Zhu was told by several real estate agents through WeChat that the real price of subsequent houses would no longer be displayed on the intermediary platform, but only the reference price of second-hand houses, and the loan amount of real estate would also be affected by the reference price, which would greatly reduce the probability.

　　In the same way, the loan amount has shrunk, and there is also a degree room in Luohu District that I like. On the one hand, the sale price of the old house is not in place, on the other hand, the loan amount has shrunk, which also means that the down payment has increased, which makes Xiao Zhu fall into the dilemma of buying a house again.

　　"In fact, the most important thing is that the old house can be sold in time." Xiao Zhu resumed his own experience and said, "The difference between the guide price in the reference mechanism of the transaction price of second-hand houses and the actual transaction price is about 25%. If the old houses can be sold smoothly, it will not be a big problem to buy this suite again."

　　However, the "28 policy" gave a cold water to the feverish property market in Shenzhen. After the introduction of the second-hand residential transaction price reference mechanism in the New Deal, the owner’s quotation of high-quality housing is generally higher than the official reference price. The bank will refer to the reference price of second-hand housing transactions given by the Housing and Construction Bureau, the quality of the house, the location, the number of years, etc., and evaluate the loan amount. The maximum loan amount will generally not exceed 70% of the total house price. In this way, the amount of bank loans may be reduced. Correspondingly, the down payment threshold for buyers has increased and transaction costs have gone up.

　　As a result, the market wait-and-see mood is more intense, and the sale of Xiao Zhu’s Pingshan old house has once again encountered bottlenecks.

　　But at that time, more market participants believed that this was nothing more than delaying the demand for house purchase, and the demand would not disappear. In the medium and long term, both buyers and sellers need to maintain an optimistic and calm trading mentality, which is the basic psychological construction.

　　The price is reduced by 300 thousand, and the replacement is still lost

　　Under this rational framework, comprehensively measuring the fundamentals of the property market, Xiao Zhu chose to spend the Spring Festival in 2021 in peace and calm.

　　But what is waiting for him is not the warming of the property market after the holiday, nor is it buying a house in Xiaoyangchun.

　　Like him, there are real estate agents who are a little lost. Unlike in previous years, when I rushed back to Shenzhen after the Spring Festival and was busy billing customers, several intermediaries on WeChat were quite depressed.

　　Xiao Huang, a real estate agent from Hubei who has a good relationship with Xiao Zhu, can’t wait for the Shenzhen property market to warm up, so she chose to find another intermediary job in Wuhan this year. "This year’s property market in Wuhan, my hometown, is very different from the epidemic period in 2020, and it has begun to warm up. Instead of going back to Shenzhen to wait, it is better to find a job in Wuhan first. "

　　Seeing that Xiao Huang didn’t return to Shenzhen after the Spring Festival, the owner of the degree room in Luohu District has been urging Xiao Zhu to make up the down payment of 4 million yuan. Xiao Zhu, who has accumulated some psychological pressure, began to feel some fluctuations.

　　For Shenzhen owners on the road to replacement, whether to choose to sell at a discount is indeed a dilemma. Under the interweaving of various internal and external factors, it is getting closer and closer to mid-March. Xiao Zhu is more clearly aware that the advantage of his own area may not be significant at present, and he has carefully weighed down the housing price by 300,000 yuan. But what corresponds to it is the stalemate that no one cares about.

　　Examples like Xiao Zhu have gradually increased since March this year. After the combination of "7.15" regulation, "2.8" guiding price new policy, mortgage tightening and poor housing-related credit, Shenzhen property market entered a sideways situation.

　　The first is the new housing market. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate, the number of new residential transactions in Shenzhen decreased by 23.6% in May, and the transaction area decreased by 24.9% in May. The transaction of new houses and residences has been declining for five consecutive months. The second-hand market is also falling. In May, the number of second-hand transfer sets decreased by 37.9% month-on-month, and the number of transactions was the lowest since March.

　　Many market participants assert that the transaction volume of Shenzhen property market in the second quarter will not usher in substantial changes, which may depend on the situation in the third quarter. The listing price data of second-hand residential buildings in Shenzhen in May monitored by many institutions also shows that most owners are firm in asking prices, and buyers and sellers in the market are still playing games.

　　According to the data monitoring of Leyoujia Store, as of May 31, the listing price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen continued to remain stable month-on-month, of which 8,276 houses showed price changes within two months, accounting for 19%; Among the houses with price changes, 42% of the houses are down-quoted. Most of these low-priced houses are a few high-priced ones such as Nanshan and Baoan, which rose rapidly last year, or individual properties such as Yantian and Longgang, whose prices have risen slowly in the short term, or owners are eager to sell back the money.

　　Xiao Zhu, an owner who actively lowered the housing price due to replacement demand, has not yet welcomed the takeover family, and his small goal of improving home ownership in Luohu has been blown up. However, after experiencing repeated contests, they seem to be more calm in their hearts and always think that the self-occupied housing is worth a higher market price. I have to say that, just like the Shenzhen property market, the mentality of Shenzhen owners seems to be firm and calm. How to settle all this needs time.

　　(At the request of the interviewee, Xiao Zhu is a pseudonym)